Hi,

About a month ago I released a new version of the 10,000 app. It contained a few things but nothing ground breaking. Nonetheless I had some assumptions about how fast users would upgrade their app, more precisely I expected that 80 to 90 percent would be running the latest version within 30 days of launch.

At the time of writing a little over a month has passed and I have some numbers to reflect on. With a total of about 10,000 active device installs (totally coincidental :)) I think there’s some basis for statistics, which I find interesting.

EDIT: I made a miscalculation the first time I ran through the numbers. I have adjusted this and some of my conclusions has been re examined and adjusted accordingly.

**The numbers**

After 1 day: 15.5 % had upgraded

After 2 days: 28.9 %

After 3 days: 33.7 %

After 4 days: 36.4 %

After 5 days: 38.9 %

After 6 days: 40.0 %

After 1 week: 42.1 %

After 2 weeks: 48.4 %

After 3 weeks: 52.6 %

After 4 weeks: 55.9 %

After 1 month: 56.8 %

What I find interesting is two things.

- The “curve” flattens quicker than I anticipated. After recalculating the numbers it’s not cut in half every day, but the curve still rapidly flattens
- A little over half the devices have been upgraded one month after the release.

**Conclusions**

I’ll be wary of what to conclude based on this, but for future reference I’ll just note that getting a new version out to all users/devices is going to take a lot longer than I first anticipated. If only 3.3 % upgrades every week from now, which is the difference between week 3 and 4, it’ll take more than 4 months total, for all devices to get upgraded.

Just something to think about ðŸ˜‰