Tag Archives: statistical analysis

Statistics as per 29th of May

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Hi again,

 

I hope you all have been having fun with some Dragons of Tarkir and maybe even some Modern Masters. Personally I’ve only been playing the Khans of Tarkir block lately. And having a ton of fun 🙂

I’ve managed to win a few online events. Besides that I feel like I’ve steadily improved my performance, both with regards to deckbuilding and play skills. I can’t say that I’m tearing it up, but my online rating in Limited is above 1700.

 

The numbers for the last 5 months for the rounds played/won:

Month Played Won Win percentage
January 24 14 58,3%
February 22 9 40,9%
Match 13 8 61,5%
April 8 6 75,0%
May 14 9 64,3%

… and for matches played/won:

Month Played Won Win percentage
January 60 33 55,0%
February 48 20 41,7%
Match 32 19 59,4%
April 17 11 64,7%
May 30 19 63,3%

 

I’ve made a graph of my progress since I started tracking.

2015-05-29-mtg-graph

 

The numbers are getting a little low for an actual statistical analysis, but none the less I feel like I’m on the right track. Especially after a dreadful performance in February, where the percentages shows a dip. I’ve mostly been playing in the PPW and Phantom queues, but I still have things to learn every time I play. Most importantly I’ve consistently been asking myself “Do I feel up for 3 hours of Magic?” before I jump in queue and deciding to not do so if I felt that I would perform poorly. That I think has had the most profound effect on my performance.

 

Until next time, have fun playing 🙂

Statistics as per 31th of October

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It’s been a while since I posted anything about my progress in Magic. That is not indicative of my play time. I’ve done both release and pre-release events and quite a few drafts online. I’ve had both ups and downs and at the moment I’m on an up. The numbers won’t show it though 🙂

I haven’t been able to win a single event since July, but that’s ok, since I’m learning a ton. I’m doing the slow bleed and I’m ok with that. I’m having fun despite that.

The numbers breaks down like this for the rounds played/won:

Month Played Won Win percentage
July 23 14 60,9%
August 24 12 50,0%
September 25 14 56,0%
October 43 24 55,8%

… and for matches played/won:

Month Played Won Win percentage
July 52 30 57,7%
August 62 32 51,6%
September 56 29 51,8%
October 106 54 50,9%

I’ve made a small graph of this.
stats-october

As you can see my round win percentage tanked in August and I have been trying to improve that since then. My match win percentage has been pretty stable, but I’ve noticed that getting far more 0-2’s and 2-1’s than 2-0’s and 1-2’s, which is supported by the fact that the match win percentage is lower than the round win percentage.

So where have I gone from here
First off, I’ve started playing Swiss drafts. This may have some effect on the numbers, but I can’t tell you how much.
I’ve started recording the events I play in, both the actual matches and results on an overall basis. I review these and try to figure out where I can get better. I feel like this has already helped me quite a bit, but it’s sometimes tedious work. Oh well, it’s all good 🙂

So November may be shaping up to be a good month for me… who knows?

Statistics for August – M15

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Once again I tallied up the score for events played. This time it’s the August numbers, and that was not one of my better performances.

 

Win percentages

The numbers from August where:

Type Played Won Win percentage
Events 7 0 0,0%
Rounds 21 10 47,6%
Matches 54 28 51,9%

No events won, which is ok. I never participate in an event, and expect to win it. If I win it is just a nice surprise, since it drastically improves my Expected Value of the event. But losing more than half my rounds really gave food for thought. This ties into the statistics on the color distribution, but more on that later.

 

Color distribution

I also did some statistics on the deck color distribution and their individual win rates:

 Guild (Color) Wins Losses Rounds Win percentage
Blue 2 1 3 66,67%
Selesnya (WG) 4 6 10 40,00%
Golgari (BG) 4 4 8 50,00%

First off, the sample size on each color is relatively small, which makes any conclusions based on this quite uncertain. The numbers for blue (which is from alive draft) and BG are quite ok, but the WG combination just fell through for me. When I read Matt Costas article on how Team Pantheon dissected the M15 draft format, it gave me a wealth of information I wanted to try out, but I think I may have screwed up somewhere along the way. I think, and this is where I second guess myself, that I may have been forcing the Selesnya decks too much. This may be based off an assumption that they’d come through more often than not. I could have been building them wrong or just misevaluated their power level in general, but the fact of the matter is that I lost far more with those, than with any of the others. Of course I didn’t play much else 😉

Another thing I noticed is that my mood is directly linked to my win percentage in an event. This is something that I really need to work on, since no game should be worth getting pissed over.

 

Takeaways

– Don’t force too much. Look at all options a second time

– It’s not important to win, but to improve.

 

Until next time, take care 🙂

Statistics for July – Theros Block action

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It’s been a while since my last post. A little too long not to have something new to write about 😀

 

At the beginning of July I started taking notes on how my performance was on MTGO. At the time I was playing only Phantom Sealed Theros Block events. I was doing ok, since my goal was to win more rounds and matches than I lost.

 

Win percentages

The numbers from July where:

Type Played Won Win percentage
Events 9 1 11,1%
Rounds 26 15 57,7%
Matches 60 34 56,7%

That at least shows me that I accomplished my aforementioned goal 🙂

 

Color distribution

I also did some statistics on the deck color distribution and their individual win rates:

 Guild (Color) Wins Losses Rounds Win percentage
Azorius (WU) 2 1 3 66,67%
Selesnya (WG) 1 1 2 50,00%
Izzet (UR) 3 3 6 50,00%
Simic (UG) 6 3 9 66,67%
Golgari (BG) 3 3 6 50,00%

The sample size may be too small to be able say anything conclusive about, but it does shed some light on how I’m performing. M15 has already been released and I’ll continue keeping track of the events I play.

 

Until next time, may your mana curve be smooth and efficient 😉